2024 Presidential Projections 538. An earlier version of a chart showing projections if the polls changed or missed in donald trump’s favor misstated the number of electoral votes that would be won by. This is the landing page for the 2024 silver bulletin presidential election forecast.

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Instead, the model puts the appropriate amount of weight on each indicator depending on how much noise is in the projections.